Saturday, November 29, 2008

Management of Self

The things that we do sometimes that land us in hot soup.We go at great length to help a friend only to end up in trouble.One thing for sure the lessons can be very expensive.It has a lot to do with management of self.

Friday, November 28, 2008

KL, KL

It was interesting to watch YB Muhammad Aziz of Sri Gading in Parliament interrupting the Deputy Minister of Federal Territory while he was rounding up answers to questions raised by Members of Parliament. YB Muhammad was disappointed with KL. He said there is nothing good about KL, traffic jam everywhere, a slight rain will choke the whole city, food is not only expensive but tasteless, hawkers do not keep their stalls clean, toilets are dirty and so on.It was really a bashing of KL.Those living and working in KL will definitely agree with YB Muhammad Aziz. Not a single day passes in KL without the traffic woes. Just imagine the hours lost on the road just to get to work or to get home. Public transport?The LRT?Packed like sardines, bad odour all over, no air-conditioning, not enough coaches.Buses not on time.Impossible when the jams are all over. The LRT has not enough lines to cover the city.One has to leave one's car in the hot sun in an area where there is no security.One get the impression the city planning of KL is really haphazard.The problems are not new.Approvals for development at places that obviously will create problems to existing housing estates as in Medan Damansara are given.While we try very hard to beautify the city including changing the kerbside turf in some areas a number of times, a number of areas such as the wet market of Chow Kit Road has not seen any development for the last 51 years! It would seem that it is impossible to bring about change to the place.Other areas such as Lorong Haji Taib continue to be the "drug areas".Even the police feels insecure and remove its beat.
The growing number of illegal visitors is all over town.Some areas are being "controlled" by them posing all sorts of social problems. There is the nigerian area, the myanmar area, the bangla area, the vietnamese area (recently they threw a dog's head in the common garbage area of an apartment area).It appears that we are extremely generous with foreign visitors even those who overstayed.If only a census is carried out in Kampong Baru and Kampong Pandan one will find the population has swelled with Indonesians, legal and otherwise.
Judging from the way the city is managed currently, whatever objectives of future plans for the city will be difficult to achieve.The city is managed by a Minister, a Mayor and a Director -General.What else do you need to make it a comfortable place to live?

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

The Stimulus Package

Now that petrol price is no longer an issue, what has surfaced as contentions for public debate is the recommended 3% reduction from the employee portion of the EPF monthly contribution.Although the intention to place higher disposable income in the hands of the workers is noble the other side of the argument is that EPF is meant to save for post retirement. Perhaps some people may not appreciate how difficult it is to just survive after one's retirement.That you need as much savings as you can to get along with life unless you manage to continue working.Somewhere in the equation a salary earner with a 11% EPF deduction may not have a taxable income whereas a 3% deduction will throw him into the taxable bracket. Try those with a RM2750 monthly income.In any case it is better to save for the rainy days than to spend it now.

As to whether the RM7 billion stimulus package is enough to maintain a reasonable growth figure for next year no one for sure knows. One thing for sure is crude oil prices has fallen more than half of its peak of US$147 in mid-July this year (at around US$55 per barrel) and so is palm oil and rubber.This will place a strain on revenue.One needs revenue to spend to generate growth.The good news is interest rate is lower but the banks are saying its not going to help them generate more lending.Why? Because banks may be afraid to lend.The construction sector seems to benefit most with the RM7 billion package but if the contractors get the jobs the ringgit will trickle down to the workers, who are mostly foreigners.The haste to spend may also pose problems.Implementation problems. Simply put, those who deserve do not get and those who do not get the jobs.Small roads, big roads, urban roads, rural roads, bridges, schools, houses etc will be the focus.Lets hope it works.China is setting aside US$565 billion stimulus package, South Korea US$300 billion, Singapore unlimited.US itself is already allocating US$700 billion, initially meant to buy up the banks' toxic debts but has since being diverted elsewhere including Citigroup.Our stock market has lost more than RM600 billion since the beginning of the year.The KLCI is not getting any better.In the meantime the ringgit is weaker against the US Dollar which is in a recession.From a high of RM3.10 six months ago it is now RM3.61 (as of Monday 24 Nov 08) so anything we buy we will have to pay more.Some will say but our products will be cheaper and more will buy but since everyone is almost in a recession, they will buy less.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

The human factory

I must say the Vice Chancellors of our universities are superhuman.Their appointments are for a 2-year term during which time they are expected to inject new thinking into the universities, shift paradigm and catapult the ranking to a higher number.Really what can you do in two years when you are at the top, even four years for that matter.Royal Professor Ungku Aziz was at University Malaya for 20 years from 68 to 88.Recently one of the VCs contract was not renewed.That in itself is quite normal.What was not were the words and sentences used to describe why it was not renewed.They gave the impression that she was not doing anything much.Well Dato' no use arguing with the politicians.Its your own fault getting mixed up with university's administration.Should have stayed in the private sector, the banking sector for instance. I can imagine the problem in the university.I was once a Dean in one of what is now a university for a few years. Besides having to deal with all sorts of student behaviour, the staff members and the division heads pose endless dimensions of conflicting human behaviour.Those who deserve to be promoted do not get promoted.Some will rot until retirement times. Just because they dont belong to the right group.Those who know how to "carry" (ampu bodek) regardless of whether they can teach will go to the highest point in the scale.In-breeding is of course practice everywhere.We get mostly those with no experience.Up till now the Universities and Colleges Act do not allow lecturers to get part-time experience.It is in the process of being amended. The whole Act has killed students' motivation.They have become introverted and if we look at the future graduates in most universities they lack most of all self-confidence and communicative skills.Major reasons why most of them are unemployed.In the meantime the universities in the private sector develop by leaps and bound.Clearly there is a need to eliminate the many duplication of programmes and a need to sit down with employers to match industry's needs with universities' output.And that's not even half the story of the need to have the right ingredients of human capital to catapult this nation to be the first fully industrialised Muslim country in the world.

The world is not enough

The world is in a recession.The G20 gathering in Washington on Nov.18 came out with basic principles about having "college of supervisors" to examine books of investment companies operating globally.It reminds me of an example given by one of my university professors during the good years of the 60s and 70s.He said a lubricating company had a complaint of a leak with their cans.What would they need to do?Some students would say came out with a new design.The professor said, "Yeah, in the meantime the cans continue leaking!"This is exactly what happens with the G20 leaders. They came out with a 11-page communique in terms of what the future should be but not what they need to do to plug the leak now.Global stock markets are down or in such wild swings that one doesn't know what will happen next.Britain, Germany, Japan and of course US are already in a recession.Citicorp had to be rescued by the US Government and so was AIG, sponsors for the Manchester United.Growth figures in China is in a 19-year low, 7.5%.Back home the growth for next year projected to be 3.5%.Just yesterday Bank Negara lowered the interest rate to 3.25% and the statutory reserve rate to 3.5%.While it is acknowledged generally our financial institutions are not caught with the sub-prime mortgage problems or the derivatives linked to them, the world economy is slowing down and being an export oriented economy our exports are going to be lower.Already income from petroleum and commodities are much lower. Crude is trading around US$55 per barrel, more than half of the peak of US$147 in mid-July this year.Palm oil is a quarter of its peak and so is rubber.While the good news is petrol is at RM2 per litre but prices of goods still remains high.Red chilli for example has gone beserk as high as RM18 per kilo!The Government cannot do much with non-controllable items.So less chilli for your cooking.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Tercapaikah Matlamat 2020

Jelas sekali apa yang diperlukan ialah suatu revolusi dunia pendidikan kita.Universiti kita entah dimana kedudukan sekarang, terlalu jauh dibawah.Revolusi yang dimaksudkan ialah rombakan besar-besaran sistem pembelajaran dan pendidikan daripada peringkat rendah sehingga peringkat universiti.Masalah kita ialah kita tidak mahu mengaku yang kita sudah jauh ketinggalan.

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Tercapaikah matlamat 2020

Ada berpuluh jenis bantuan kewangan yang disediakan, tetapi cubalah dapatkan barulah kita tahu.Bantuan itu disalurkan melalui bank-bank yang masih belum lagi melakukan anjakan paradigma mereka.Bank masih lagi belum keluar daripada kepompong menilai projek dari segi nilai cagaran bukan nilai projek itu sendiri. Pernah berlaku seorang sahabat saya daripada syarikat Far Alliance Sdn Bhd yang mempunyai 16 jurutera Melayu yang telah membentuk suatu alat yang boleh mengguna elektrik untuk semua peralatan komunkasi.Mereka memerlukan AS15 juta untuk membentuk prototype alat tersebut supaya dapat diperdagangkan.Kita tidak perlu menggunakan saluran talipon untuk alat-alat komunikasi.Satu demonstrasi ke suatu demonstrasi dilakukan daripada TNB sehinggalah kepada Tun Mahathir (semasa dia menjadi Perdana Menteri).TNB sendiri telah meminta berpuluh ujian dilakukan dan semuanya lulus.Saya sendiri telah membawa mereka berjumpa tidak kurang daripada 6 institusi kewangan sampai orang teratas, tidak satu pun berhasil. Akhirnya saya suruh mereka mencuba nasib diIndonesia. Mereka diterima dengan tangan terbuka.Modal insan yang beginilah yang kita perlukan yang perlu disuburkan dengan bantuan dan bimbingan. Malangnya orang-orang bank yang masih lagi berfikiran picik dan jumud tidak sedar pentingnya syarikat kecil dan sederhana diberikan bantuan. Itulah yang dikatakan cakap tak serupa bikin.
Dalam bercakap pasal modal insan kita mementingkan kuantiti bukan kualiti. Lebih banyak universiti lebih bagus.Lebih banyak yang masuk universiti lebih baik sampai ada sasaran 200 ribu. Program yang ditawarkan lazimnya bertindih antara satu universiti dengan yang lain.Kebanyakan universiti tidak ada halatuju, kemana mereka hendak pergi. Kalau disuruh membentuk transformi menjadi universiti kelas dunia mereka tidak tahu.
Insan yang bakal dijadikan modal dalam ekonomi yang berteraskan ilmu tentu sekali sesuatu yang bukan produk berorientasikan peperiksaan, yang bukan mahir dalam kerja "potong dan tampal"
sahaja tetapi sesaorang yang cekal, gigih, berilmu, berkemahiran,amanah, mempunyai integriti,mampu berkomunikasi dalam beberapa bahasa dan mampu berfikir.Kita sudah lihat bagaimana dalam tahun-tahun 80an kepercayaan yang diberikan kepada beberap individu Melayu untuk memimpin konglomerat kita hancur disebabkan tidak amanah, tidak berupaya mengurus. Kita lihat beberapa syarikat yang tersenarai tersadai dengan hutang berbilion ringgit termasuk juga mereka yang menyelenggarakan perbadanan ekonomi negeri. Kalau dinegara lain mereka ini sudah dihumban kedalam penjara tetapi disini mereka terus berurusan dengan menukar kulit malahan ada yang begitu lantang suara seolah-olah orang tak ingat perangai buruk mereka.
Apa yang diperlukan ialah suatu "revolusi"
dalam sistem pendidikan daripada bawah sehingga atas.Lihat sahaja negara-negara disekeliling kita seperti Singapura, Korea Selatan, Taiwan yang kini telah jauh meninggalkan kita dari segi daya saing. Rasuah yang menjadi-jadi membelenggu kita dan inilah bakal menjadi barah yang akan membunuh kita.

(Bersambung)

Tercapaikah matlamat 2020

Hari ini Pak Lah kata matlamat 2020 mungkin terjejas kerana kenaikan harga minyak dan harga binaan. Memang itu kita terima sebagai sesuatu yang tidak dapat dielakkan.Apakah matlamat 2020 sebagai sebuah negara perindustrian yang maju kejayaannya bergantung kepada dua perkara ini sahaja?Apakah yang lebih penting dalam pencapaian tersebut?Modal insan.Cuba kita lihat produk yang lahir daripada usaha modal insan kita. Universiti kita telah jatuh kedudukannya dimata dunia dibawah sana dalam lingkungan 150, siswazah kita ramai yang menganggur, lebih kurang 40 ribu orang.Jangan lupa setiap tahun setiap universiti akan mengeluarkan graduan mereka.Kalau sebuah universiti mengeluarkan 1,000 graduan, 20 ertinya 20ribu graduan. Mereka ini akan menambahkan bilangan mereka yang menganggur. Kenapa mereka ini menganggur?Siapa mereka ini?Mengikut kajian rasmi Unit Perancang Ekonomi, 90 peratus Melayu dan 85 peratus wanita.Sebab-sebab utama mereka menganggur adalah kelemahan berkemunikasi sama ada dalam Bahasa Melayu atau Bahasa Inggeris.Melihat kertas jawapan kerja rumah yang pernah saya beri kepada pelajar universiti saya, bahasa mereka sama ada Melayu atau Inggeris tunggang langgang. Ada juga yang menggungakan bahasa sms!Kedua mereka lemah dalam pengetahuan am.Ertinya kurang membaca dan tidak tahu apa yang berlaku sekeliling mereka. Ketiga mereka tidak memiliki keyakinan diri.Pernah saya menemuduga beberapa orang calon untuk menjadi wakil peniaga saham yang meminta diberhentikan temuduga kerana tidak mampu meneruskannya. Akhir sekali ramai yang tidak membuat persiapan untuk ditemuduga.Misalannya menyeledik sedikit sebanyak mengenai syarikat atau jabatan yang akan menemuduga mereka.

Didalam kelas kita boleh lihat dari segi penyertaan betapa kurang dan lemahnya penyertaan mereka. Apakah ini harapan kepada modal insan yang kita laungkan?Inikah yang bakal membawa kita kepada matlamat 2020 kita?Tidak ada universiti yang mahu mengaku yang siswazah mereka menganggur. Tetapi kita tahu kerajaan terpaksa mengadakan kursus jangka pendek untuk membantu mereka yang menganggur ini.Bayangkanlah selepas bertahun-tahun diuniversiti mereka keluar dan terpaksa diberikan kursus jangka pendek untuk membantu mereka mendapatkan pekerjaan.Bukan semua yang tertarik hendak menjadi usahawan.Kalau ia pun bukan senang. Macam-macam dijanjikan dari segi bantuan tetapi sesiapa yang menceburkan diri dalam perniagaan tahulah susah atau senang mendapatkan bantuan.

(Bersambung)

University and University Colleges

Its refreshing news to hear that the University and University Colleges Act is going to be amended.After the standards of our public university have gone down so bad we now realise the very product we are producing are of doubtful quality incapable of competing globally maybe even locally.It is such a pity when I remember those days when our students are so full of spirits and enthusiasm.They were full of confidence and courage.Yes some of them did take to the streets.Demonstrating against current issues at that time.I showed that they were aware to their surroundings.The Act literally killed all the spirits and the enthusiasm and our students become timid, lack of self-confidence and unable to communicate effectively. No wonder when about 40,000 of them are unemployed.With 10,000 coming out every year from the 20 universities the numbers will grow in no time. Asking them to be entrepreneurs may be part of the solution but we must remember entrepreneurs have that special quality of willing to take risks.How many of them have that quality. In fact the Act is so draconian that it even stifled lecturers from going out to get practical experience. So what we get in the universities are students of the universities being sent to further their studies and coming back to teach the new students. Like anything else this inbreeding is not good at all. Perhaps now we all see the need to have a dialogue with captains of the industry to see how practical experience can be obtained by our students and that our curricula are what the industry needs. The mismatch has been going on far too long.If our universities are so good why is that our competitive position from 16 went down to 19?Look around us maybe we can learn something from others.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Inflation and the Ringgit

"The interest rate remains," screams the headline.On Friday 24th July 2008, Bank Negara decided to let the interest remains despite the fact inflation is slowly creeping up to 7.7% in June.The decision not to is intended to help businesses grow.The argument is if interest rate goes up, cost of financing goes up and growth may be affected. In favour of growth let inflation goes up.The thing about inflation figures is that nobody believes what is being told.Possibly because its an aggregate figure of collection of prices throughout the country regardless of cities or rural areas. So for all intents and purposes the figure given would apply to Ulu Tembeling and Kuala Lumpur although its pretty obvious they are not the same. Perhaps a sampling of customers being given some sort of an electronic device in which they can key-in prices of selected goods whenever they do a purchase transaction.These sample of customers will be rewarded for their efforts and a team from the statistics department will do a random verification to ensure that prices are not simply keyed-in.Each customer will be given an identification number which will indicate his area.This data can be compiled by cities, towns or kampongs.The component items in the basket will need to be looked at and items that do not apply to Malaysian tastes such as cheese may need adjustments.
Secondly inflation is also imported.We import about RM15 billion of worth of food per year, anything and everything, as if we are trying to please every nation that we trade with. At the moment our currency is slowly weakening with the US Dollar.The picture with the other currencies such as Euro, Sing Dollar is much worse.If we are truly strong then we should be strong with any currency.Three months ago its RM4.80 to Euro.Today its RM5.20.With Sing Dollar it was RM2.20 now its RM2.44.Why do we let our Ringgit take a beating.Call it whatever you want, NDF or plain short selling we are at the losing end. The moment news of the interest rates remains, there was a sell down of Ringgit, weakening the currency even
more. Why?Our growth figures are better than our neighbours and yet our currency is weaker than them and we dont do anything about it. The argument that if the currency appreciates our exporters will have problems does not hold anymore as we were at USDollar1 for RM2.50 before the crisis.If we go up to RM2.80 to US$1 we will solve a lot of problems including the imported inflation and our import figures will be much better.Our currency does not reflect our economic growth. There is no need to talk about subsidies and petrol price or commodities. The strength of the economy is in the currency.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

The petrol hike

Brace yourselves.Petrol is 78 sen more and diesel is RM1 more.Don't forget come July 1, electricity will be up 15% unless you use less than 200kw.So less air-conditioning and less ironing.Also take a walk to your sundry shop or use a bicycle.No more weekend trips to Bagan Lalang or PD from now on.Don't forget there is the toll you have to pay wherever you go or better take the old road.If you are buying the groceries, check the papers for items on major discounts and compare Tesco with Carrefour or Giant before you go.Oh yes forget the morning roti canai.Buy a flask and bring tea-o or kopi-o to the office or anywhere.Don't add condensed milk as it will taste funny after a while.Better still get green tea.No cancer causing agents.
This round of price hike is going to shrink your ringgit too.Everything is going to go up so inflation is not going to stay at 3% anymore.5%?Fat hopes.Food weightage is 30% in the CPI and transport is 17%.Consumers' Associations say take the public transport or car pool to work.Whats 's a little cramping here and there in the LRT and bear the smell and in case the lines do not get to the front of your house, take the cab, that is if the cab driver agrees to take you at his rate not the meter.If you take the bus make sure you get out by 6am if you want to reach the office in time and be prepared to reach home late.Since time is going to be extra tough for some people, crime might just go up.So carry the pepper spray in your pocket or your purse and don't stop if somebody knocks your car or asks for directions.
In case you forget there is some cash rebate when you renew your road tax.For those rich people owning more than 2000cc cars, you get to pay only the income tax but no rebates for you.Get to the post office early because there is something like 6 million car owners eligible to claim the rebate.Good luck to the post office.They do everything under the sun anyway so whats one more item.The boss says he is ready.